The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold edges up on a softer dollar but heads for a weekly loss
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,177.82 an ounce early on Friday, yet still down about 0.5% for the week. The US dollar is heading for its first weekly fall in five weeks, which makes bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. (Reuters, via CNBC and Business Recorder)
Thursday's rebound from a one-week low
Gold rose 1.3% to $4,158.63 on Thursday, recovering from a one-week low as the dollar eased. The bounce came even as traders digested a hot US inflation report that keeps the prospect of tighter policy alive. (Reuters, via TradingView)
Markets now price a December rate rise as near certain
CME's FedWatch tool showed a 28% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month and a 93% chance by December. Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which is why gold has struggled to hold its gains this month. The next Fed statement is due on 28 October. (Reuters; CME FedWatch; Crux Investor)
Yields remain the headwind
Earlier this month US 10 year and 30 year Treasury yields reached their highest levels in 24 years, with the dollar near an 18 month high, pushing gold to a two month low on 7 October. The easing in both this week is what has given bullion room to recover. (Trading Economics; Reuters, via Kitco)
Central banks keep buying at a steady pace
Central banks reporting to the IMF added a net 290 tonnes of gold in the 12 months to July 2026, close to the 296 tonnes of the year before. Poland, China and Kazakhstan led the buying, while Russia and Turkey were the largest sellers. (World Gold Council)
Miners lift their sights for 2026
Latin American producer Mineros raised its 2026 guidance for the second time this year, to 235,000 to 245,000 ounces, after third quarter output rose about 14%. Coeur Mining also lifted its 2026 outlook after completing its acquisition of New Gold, and West African Resources reported 127,950 ounces for the September quarter. (Crux Investor; The Northern Miner; ASX announcements)
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Business Recorder, TradingView, CME FedWatch, Trading Economics, Kitco, World Gold Council, Crux Investor, The Northern Miner, ASX. Compiled Friday 16 October 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.