The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold near $4,100 and heading for its first monthly gain since February
Bullion traded close to $4,100 an ounce on Friday morning after rising for two straight sessions, putting it on course for its first monthly gain since February (Bloomberg). The move came as the dollar fell sharply and as reports circulated that the United States had paused airstrikes in Iran overnight (Yahoo Finance). Quoted spot levels differed between providers through the session, so treat any single figure as a snapshot rather than the whole picture.
The Federal Reserve holds, but three governors wanted a hike
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, despite inflationary pressure from the conflict in the Middle East (Bloomberg). The vote was 9-3, with governors Kashkari, Hammack and Logan all voting to raise rates. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 63% chance of a hike in September, which is what has kept a lid on gold's advance even as the dollar weakened.
Suspected Japanese intervention knocks the dollar
The yen posted its largest gain in more than two years on Thursday, with the dollar/yen pair falling 2.5%, the biggest single-day drop since the April intervention (Bloomberg, CNBC). Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported that officials had stepped in again to support the currency, which had been sitting near a 40-year low against the dollar. Tokyo has not confirmed it. Gold is priced in dollars, so a softer dollar mechanically lifts the sterling and dollar quotes you see on our banner.
Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter
The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report, published on 30 July, puts central bank net buying at 288.9 tonnes in the three months to 30 June, a second-quarter record and 62% higher than the same period last year (World Gold Council). The National Bank of Poland was the largest single buyer at 51 tonnes, taking its first-half total to 82 tonnes and its reserves to 632 tonnes, against a stated target of 700 tonnes. The People's Bank of China added 33 tonnes, its largest quarterly purchase since the fourth quarter of 2023, lifting declared reserves to 2,346 tonnes.
Jewellery demand falls in weight, rises in value
The same report shows total gold demand flat year on year at 1,269 tonnes, with jewellery demand down 17% by weight as buyers shifted towards lighter pieces (World Gold Council). The value tells the opposite story: first-half jewellery demand was worth US$86bn globally, up 22% year on year. India's second-quarter jewellery demand fell 15% to 75.1 tonnes from 88.8 tonnes a year earlier, while China remains the weaker of the two, with buyers still favouring bars and coins.
ETF holdings still positive for the year, and mine supply edging up
Global physically backed gold exchange traded funds ended June with US$526bn in assets under management, with first-half flows remaining positive overall even after outflows in May and June (World Gold Council, Mining Weekly). On the supply side, the Council expects mine production to edge higher while prices stay elevated. Neither figure changes the fundamental point for a buyer of finished jewellery: the metal in a piece is priced off the same spot market, whatever the funds are doing that month.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, FXStreet, the World Gold Council and Mining Weekly. Compiled Friday 31 July 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.