The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds above $4,250 and heads for its best week since January
Bullion was back on the bid near $4,250 early on Friday, with spot quoted at $4,260.68, and remains on course to book its strongest week since January. The move has been built on four straight sessions of gains rather than one dramatic jump, which is usually the healthier kind of rally. (FXStreet, Markets.com)
Seven week high on hopes the Strait of Hormuz reopens
Gold touched $4,285.84 on Thursday, its highest in seven weeks, helped by weaker oil, a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields as expectations grew that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. It is a counter intuitive trade: since the US and Iran conflict began on 28 February, gold and Brent crude have largely moved in opposite directions, because cheaper oil means less energy driven inflation and therefore less pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten. (CNBC)
Oil jumped on Thursday but is still down heavily on the week
Crude rose after Iranian state news published a draft plan setting restrictive conditions for ship traffic through Hormuz, with Brent up 3.8% to close at $82.49 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up about 2.8% at $77.29. Even so, prices are down roughly 8% across the week after the US Treasury Secretary suggested a deal to open the strait could come within days, and Iran and Oman were reported to be working on transit routes. (CNBC)
US payrolls are today's event risk
The July non farm payrolls report is the week's main macro release, with the headline expected at 80,000 after a 57,000 increase in June and the unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.2%. A weak number supports the argument that lower energy costs have taken a Federal Reserve rate rise off the table this year, while a hot number could revive September tightening bets and take some of the shine off the metal. (FXStreet, Investing.com)
Central banks keep buying, and China is buying harder
Official sector demand has stayed strong through 2026 despite the price. The People's Bank of China is reported to have added 40 tonnes in the first half of this year alone, against 27 tonnes for the whole of 2025, and Goldman Sachs analysts expect central banks to average around 60 tonnes a month through 2026 on continued reserve diversification. This is the quiet, price insensitive bid that has underpinned the market for three years now. (Kitco News, Sprott Money)
Record mine supply, and record costs to get it out
Global mine output hit an all time quarterly record of 966 tonnes in the second quarter, taking the first half to 1,867 tonnes, about 3% above the 1,808 tonnes of the first half of 2025. All in sustaining costs also reached records on higher royalties and energy inflation, which is the part usually left out of the story: more metal is reaching the market, but each ounce is dearer to produce, and that cost sets a floor nobody can vote away. (Mining.com, Mining Reporters)
India: festive orders build as the price steadies
Indian jewellery demand recovered sequentially in the second quarter to 75 tonnes, up 14% on the quarter but down 15% on the year, with India still leading global jewellery demand. Manufacturers have been taking retailer orders ahead of the festive season starting in August, helped by relative price stability, discounts and exchange offers, although imports for the full year are still expected to fall towards 400 tonnes after the rise in import duty from 6% to 15%. (World Gold Council, Business of Fashion)
Sources: FXStreet, CNBC, Markets.com, Investing.com, Kitco News, Sprott Money, Mining.com, Mining Reporters, World Gold Council, Business of Fashion. Compiled 7 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.