The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds near $4,340 as the market waits on inflation data
Gold opened the week close to $4,340 an ounce, little changed after Friday's push to a seven week high. The steadying followed a weak US July payrolls report, which strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts and pulled Treasury yields lower. Traders are now positioned for a volatile week around the US data calendar (Markets.com).
US CPI on Wednesday is the week's main event
Headline consumer prices for July are expected to rise 0.1 per cent on the month, after a 0.4 per cent fall previously. Producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims and the University of Michigan inflation expectations survey follow, alongside Treasury auctions. A hotter reading would lift real yields and the dollar, which typically works against gold (International Stacker, Markets.com).
China's central bank extends its buying run to 21 months
The People's Bank of China added around 20 tonnes of gold to its reserves in July, the largest monthly increase since October 2023 and the twenty first consecutive month of accumulation. Steady official sector demand of this kind is one of the quieter supports under the price, because it does not react to short term news (Bloomberg).
Poland leads the official sector so far this year
The National Bank of Poland bought 51 tonnes in the second quarter, taking its first half total to 82 tonnes and its holdings to 632 tonnes, moving towards a stated 700 tonne target. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan and the Czech Republic were also reported buyers in the quarter, while Russia and Turkey have been the largest net sellers of 2026 (Visual Capitalist, World Gold Council data).
Gold backed ETFs return to inflow
Global gold backed exchange traded funds took in about $3bn in July, reversing two months of outflows, with every region contributing and European listed funds leading. Holdings rose by 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes and assets under management climbed 1 per cent to roughly $530bn. Asian investors bought $616mn, while North America remained in net outflow (World Gold Council).
Mine supply hits a record even as costs climb
Global mine production reached 966 tonnes in the second quarter, an all time high for a June quarter and 2 per cent above the same period last year, with first half output of 1,867 tonnes also a record. Costs are rising with the gold price, since higher prices feed straight through into government royalties, and industry all in sustaining costs were reported at $1,785 an ounce in the first quarter (Mining Reporters, World Gold Council).
The Week in Gold
It was a strong week. Gold recovered from around the $4,000 area and finished Friday near $4,343 an ounce, roughly 6.6 per cent higher than the week before and its best weekly showing since January, touching a seven week high in the process. The driver was the July US jobs report, which showed the economy shedding about 23,000 jobs against expectations of around 80,000 gains, with unemployment at 4.1 per cent. Weak labour data raises the odds of rate cuts, and lower rates reduce the cost of holding an asset that pays no interest. Safe haven demand around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, plus continued central bank buying, added to the move. The week ahead turns on Wednesday's US CPI print: futures pricing puts the chance of the Federal Reserve holding its 3.50 to 3.75 per cent range in September at about 33 per cent, so the inflation number will do a lot of the work in setting the next leg.
Sources: Markets.com, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Visual Capitalist, Mining Reporters, International Stacker, Yahoo Finance, CNBC. Compiled Monday 10 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.