The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold slips towards $4,340 as oil revives inflation fears
Spot gold eased about 0.3% to around $4,334 an ounce in early trading on Monday, as rising crude oil prices renewed worries about inflation. Traders are increasingly pricing a US interest rate rise at this week's Federal Reserve meeting, which weighs on a metal that pays no interest (Vantage Markets).
All eyes on the Fed decision on 16 September
The Federal Reserve meets on 15 and 16 September, and markets now see a quarter point rate rise as highly likely, with the CME FedWatch tool showing odds of roughly 86% to 90% late last week. Higher rates tend to lift the dollar and bond yields, the two forces that have pressed on gold this month (Kitco, GoldSilver).
US inflation holds at 3.4%, with core running warm
US consumer prices rose 3.4% on the year in August, unchanged from July and in line with forecasts, driven by a sharp jump in gasoline and fuel oil costs. Core prices rose 0.3% on the month against a forecast of 0.2%. Gold rallied on the day of the release, as the figure removed uncertainty after the metal had already fallen on Thursday's producer price data (Trading Economics, GoldSilver).
China's central bank buys the most gold since 2023
The People's Bank of China added 650,000 ounces to its reserves in August, its largest monthly addition since 2023, extending its run of purchases to 22 months even as prices have climbed. Official buying remains one of the steadiest supports under the gold price (Bloomberg).
Wall Street turns bullish again despite the weekly slide
Kitco's weekly survey found nine of fourteen Wall Street analysts, or 64%, expect gold to rise this week, with only two expecting further falls. Retail participants were more cautious, trimming their bullish majority after another losing week (Kitco).
India's demand cools under a 15% import duty
Indian gold demand fell 6% year on year to 131 tonnes in the second quarter, and net bullion imports dropped 22% to 98 tonnes after the government raised duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% in May. Spending on gold still reached a second quarter record because of higher prices (World Gold Council).
The Week in Gold
Gold lost nearly 2% last week, its third weekly decline in a row, touching a low of $4,292.11 an ounce on Friday before recovering part of the loss without regaining $4,400. The driver was the growing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate rise, fed by firm producer prices, oil near $100 and a stronger dollar. The week ahead turns almost entirely on Wednesday's Fed decision and what it signals about further tightening, while Goldman Sachs still sees upside risk to its forecast of about $4,900 by the end of 2026 (Kitco, Yahoo Finance, International News and Views).
Sources: Vantage Markets, Kitco News, GoldSilver, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Yahoo Finance, International News and Views. Compiled Monday 14 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.