The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold opens the week back towards $4,400
Gold moved higher at the start of Monday trading, with XAU/USD up around 0.5% and pressing towards $4,400 an ounce. Softer United States data has trimmed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate rise next month, while tensions in the Middle East continue to sit under the market as a risk that has not gone away. Silver was firmer alongside it, up about 1.6%. (Markets.com)
Friday's profit taking left the week in the red
Spot gold ended Friday down 0.5% at $4,330.70 an ounce and was set for a weekly loss, as investors banked profits a day after bullion reached its highest level since 5 June. Thursday's peak was followed by a 1.3% settlement decline, which tells you the buying was fast money rather than a slow accumulation. Mild United States inflation data had driven the run up in the first place. (Reuters)
The September question is still open
July consumer price inflation came in cooler than feared, but Thursday's core producer price index rose 0.4% on the month and revived the argument for a rise. The CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of the Fed holding rates steady in September at 69.4%, with 30.6% still expecting an increase. The dollar index eased 0.4% to 99.57 as hawkish bets were trimmed. (Yahoo Finance, CNBC, CME Group)
China's central bank makes it twenty one months in a row
The People's Bank of China added roughly 20 tonnes of gold to its reserves in July, its twenty first consecutive month of buying and its largest single monthly addition since October 2023. It follows about 15 tonnes in June. Official sector demand of this kind is price insensitive in a way that private buying is not, and it has been the quiet floor under this market for two years. (Bloomberg)
Poland leads the buyers, Russia and Turkey lead the sellers
Poland is the largest official buyer of 2026 so far, adding more than 20 tonnes as part of a longer plan to reach 700 tonnes of reserves, a decision framed around security on NATO's eastern flank. Russia and Turkey are the largest net sellers this year, with Russian sales tied to fiscal pressure. Goldman Sachs analysts expect central banks to average around 60 tonnes a month through 2026. (Visual Capitalist, Kitco)
Funds came back in July, futures positioning did not
Global gold backed exchange traded funds took in US$3bn in July, reversing two months of outflows, with holdings up 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes. That is still below the record 4,176 tonnes set on 27 February this year, and year to date inflows stand at US$11bn. Over the same month, total COMEX net long positions fell 4.4% to 542 tonnes. Physical investment demand and speculative futures demand are pointing in different directions. (World Gold Council)
India buys less metal and spends more money
Indian gold demand fell to 131 tonnes in the second quarter, down 6% on the year and 13% on the quarter, yet spending hit a quarterly record of INR1,979bn, about US$21bn, up 35% year on year. It is the pattern every jeweller recognises at these price levels: the same customers, the same occasions, lighter pieces. (World Gold Council)
The Week in Gold
Gold finished last week lower despite touching its highest level since early June on Thursday, a rally built on mild United States inflation figures and unwound within twenty four hours as profit takers moved in. The driver all week was the same one: whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September, with cooler consumer prices arguing no and firmer producer prices arguing yes. The month as a whole remains strongly positive, and CNBC notes gold set a record above $5,000 earlier in the year before the swings of recent months. Ahead this week are the FOMC minutes, July industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the flash August purchasing managers' indices, with the Jackson Hole symposium the set piece that markets will read most closely. Expect volatility around the language rather than the numbers.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Kitco, World Gold Council, CME Group, Markets.com, Visual Capitalist. Compiled 17 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.