The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold climbs toward $4,100 as oil retreats
Gold rose about 1% on Monday to around $4,090 an ounce, moving away from nine-month lows. The gain came as oil prices dropped sharply following a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, easing concerns over supply disruption and inflation. (Trading Economics)
Fed decision looms on 29 to 30 July
The centrepiece this week is the Federal Reserve meeting on 29 and 30 July, with markets firmly expecting policymakers to stand pat. According to CME Group, the probability that the Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% stands at roughly 86%. A steady-hand outcome keeps the focus on the accompanying guidance and later data. (FX Leaders, CME Group)
China's central bank buys most gold since 2023
The People's Bank of China increased its bullion holdings by 480,000 troy ounces in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. The move extended a buying streak that now runs to 20 consecutive months. (Bloomberg)
Central banks stay committed, Poland leads the pack
June buying was driven chiefly by Poland, which added 18 tonnes, and China, with Singapore returning to the market for a 4-tonne net purchase, its first since September 2025. Surveys show 89% of central bankers expect global reserves to rise over the next year, with a record 45% expecting their own holdings to increase. (World Gold Council)
Chinese imports surge as Indian demand cools
Chinese gold imports jumped to roughly 173 tonnes in June, the strongest monthly inflow since March 2024, and local prices carried a premium of $3 to $6 an ounce. In India, by contrast, discounts widened to a seven-week high as buyers waited for a deeper correction after the recent price rebound. (Kitco, Reuters)
Gold defends $4,000 after testing the 200-day average
Prices dipped into the $3,940s last week before finding support at the 200-day moving average and rebounding to close above the psychologically important $4,000 mark. Holding that level has kept the technical picture intact ahead of the Fed. (FX Leaders)
The Week in Gold
Gold spent the past week caught between two forces: fading Middle East risk premiums on one side and firmer oil and bond yields on the other. Prices slipped to nine-month lows in the $3,940s before rebounding to close above $4,000 and pushing back toward $4,100 by Monday. The main driver was a shift in risk sentiment as US and Iran tensions eased, alongside steady central bank accumulation underpinning the market. Ahead lies the Federal Reserve decision on 29 and 30 July, followed by GDP and PCE inflation readings that will shape the rate outlook into August.
Sources: Trading Economics, FX Leaders, CME Group, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Kitco and Reuters. Compiled 27 July 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.