The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold slips below 4,200 dollars to its weakest level since early August
Spot gold traded under 4,200 dollars an ounce on Monday morning, down roughly 2.5 per cent on the day and at its lowest point since the start of August. The damage was done by a firmer dollar and higher American bond yields rather than by anything in the metal itself. (FXStreet)
A hawkish Federal Reserve is the heaviest weight on the price
The Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 per cent on 16 September, its first increase since 2023, and signalled another could follow before the year is out. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that the biggest risk is inflation expectations coming unanchored. Markets now price roughly a 70 per cent chance of a further rise in October, up from about 55 per cent a week earlier. (Bloomberg, FXStreet, CME FedWatch Tool)
Ten year Treasury yields reach a nineteen year high
The ten year American government bond yield pushed above 5.1 per cent last week, a level not seen in nineteen years, with the thirty year testing its 2007 highs. Gold pays no income, so when government bonds pay more the cost of holding metal rises with them. The dollar index climbed to a two month high alongside. (GSI Exchange)
Strait of Hormuz standoff lifts oil but not gold
President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran said it would not soften its conditions. Oil rose on the news. Gold, normally the first beneficiary of a headline like that, was outweighed by rates and the dollar, which shows how firmly the interest rate story is in charge at the moment. (FXStreet, Vantage Markets)
Central banks are still buying through the fall
Central bank net purchases hit a record second quarter total of 289 tonnes, with the National Bank of Poland the largest single buyer at 51 tonnes, and the World Gold Council expects roughly 850 tonnes of official sector buying across 2026. Its annual survey found 89 per cent of reserve managers expect global central bank holdings to keep rising over the next twelve months. Official buyers are not trading the weekly chart. (World Gold Council, Mining.com)
Indian buyers hold back as the festival season approaches
Domestic Indian prices sat at a discount of about 78 dollars an ounce to the landed cost as of 11 September, widened from 51 dollars in August and 34 dollars in July, as old jewellery coming back in for exchange boosted local supply. Jewellery buyers have been deferring purchases and moving to lighter pieces, while wedding demand has held up rather better. (World Gold Council)
The Week in Gold
Spot gold fell about 2 per cent over the week to Friday 25 September, opening the week near 4,337 dollars and closing around 4,300 after touching 4,275 on Thursday. The driver was not fear but data: a flash composite PMI of 58.4, jobless claims of 197,000 and new home sales up 6.4 per cent all pointed to an economy strong enough to absorb another rate rise, and yields and the dollar moved accordingly. Silver ended the week near 64.76 dollars after a swing from about 67 down to below 64. The week ahead brings the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, expected to lift its rate by a quarter point to 4.6 per cent, and a run of American data that will set the odds on the Federal Reserve's October meeting.
Sources: FXStreet, Bloomberg, GSI Exchange, World Gold Council, Mining.com, Vantage Markets, Traders Union. Compiled Monday 28 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.