The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Payrolls surprise knocks gold off its mid-week rebound
Gold gave back most of the week's recovery on Friday after the August employment report landed far stronger than forecast. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against expectations of roughly 53,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar together. Spot gold fell more than 2% to around $4,376 an ounce on the session (CNBC).
The September meeting is now a hike debate, not a cut debate
Traders are pricing a real chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates when it meets later this month, with probabilities sitting close to even money through the week. Remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the central bank still has "work to do" on prices pushed those odds up, while dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller pulled them back again (Yahoo Finance, USAGOLD). Gold pays no yield, so a higher for longer rate path remains its main headwind.
Silver holds the mid sixties
Silver eased with gold on Friday but held historically elevated ground, settling near $66.17 an ounce after December futures opened around $67.63 (Rio Times Online, Yahoo Finance). It is being driven by the same rate expectations as gold, with industrial demand giving it a second leg the yellow metal does not have.
China's buying streak reaches twenty one months
The People's Bank of China added about 20 tonnes in July, taking reported holdings to a record 2,366 tonnes and extending its run of consecutive monthly purchases to twenty one (Bloomberg). Roughly 60 tonnes have gone on the books since the turn of the year. The August figure is due in the first days of this month and will show whether the streak has run to twenty two.
Central bank demand set a second quarter record
Official sector buying reached a net 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, up 62% year on year and the strongest second quarter on record, according to the World Gold Council. The buying continued even as the gold price fell sharply across those three months, which is the detail worth holding on to: central banks were adding into weakness rather than chasing strength.
ETF investors came back in July, with the August read due
Global gold ETFs took in US$3bn during July, a swing of 23 tonnes that lifted holdings to 4,068 tonnes and assets under management to US$530bn, led by European funds with the UK and Switzerland at the front (World Gold Council, published 6 August). The August flows report is due shortly and will be the first clean read on whether that appetite survived the price fall.
The Week in Gold
Gold finished the week lower, on course for a fall of roughly 1% by Friday's close after a mid-week rebound was undone in a single session (CNBC). The driver was singular and American: an August payrolls print about three times consensus, which revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise this month and carried the dollar and yields up with it. Physical gold ended the week somewhere between $4,420 and $4,429 depending on the measure used, with silver near $66 (USAGOLD, Rio Times Online). Ahead this week, the August producer and consumer price reports are the main scheduled events before the Fed meets later in the month, and the monthly central bank and ETF data for August are both expected. For a dealer the read is unchanged: the official sector is still buying, and the price is being set by the American rates market rather than by anything happening across the counter.
Sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, USAGOLD, Rio Times Online, Bloomberg and the World Gold Council. Compiled Monday 7 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.