The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold closed July higher, its first monthly gain since February
Gold finished the month at about US$4,043 an ounce on Friday 31 July, down 1.47% on the day after touching an intraday high of US$4,112.90 in the morning session (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance). Across July as a whole the metal added roughly 0.5%, its first monthly increase since February, helped by softer United States inflation data and the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged. For context on how far the market has travelled, the LBMA PM price set a historical high of US$5,405 an ounce in January before the correction (World Gold Council).
A firm dollar and a hawkish Fed still set the tone
The dollar has been sitting near a one month high, which makes bullion priced in dollars more expensive for buyers everywhere else, and that has been the main brake on the price (CNBC). Ahead of the July meeting, CME FedWatch showed roughly a 64% probability of a hold at 3.50% to 3.75% against a 36% chance of a rise. Attention has now moved to September, where markets are pricing about a 65% chance of a rate rise (Yahoo Finance). Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, so this is the number to watch through August.
What UK buyers actually paid in July
In sterling the picture is calmer than the dollar headlines suggest. Gold opened on 31 July at about £3,047.54 an ounce, up 0.19% on the week, with the month's low at £2,950.04 on 16 July (exchange-rates.org). That is well below the 2026 high of £3,978.49 set on 2 March. In grams, the working number a jeweller cares about, July traded in the region of £95 to £100 a gram for fine gold, which is why second hand and antique pieces have been moving.
Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes in the second quarter
Official sector buying hit a record 289 tonnes in the second quarter, up 74% on the same period last year and more than five times the revised first quarter figure of 57 tonnes (World Gold Council). The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer at 51 tonnes, taking its reserves to 632 tonnes, followed by the People's Bank of China at 33 tonnes, its biggest quarterly addition since the fourth quarter of 2023, lifting holdings to 2,346 tonnes. Uzbekistan added 16 tonnes, Kazakhstan 15, and Jordan and the Czech Republic six apiece. Russia and Turkey remain the largest net sellers of the year.
Exchange traded funds went the other way
While central banks bought, investors in gold backed funds sold. The second quarter saw 45 tonnes of outflows, including 16 tonnes in May alone, though first half ETF demand stayed modestly positive at 18 tonnes (World Gold Council). Supply rose too: mine production was up an estimated 2% year on year in the second quarter to 966 tonnes, supported by new output from Canada and Chile. The market's floor this year has been built by governments, not by fund managers.
India's buyers came back on the pullback
After a lull from mid May to mid June, Indian demand has been recovering, led by jewellery, with lower prices treated as a buying opportunity rather than a warning (World Gold Council, Kavita Chacko). Net inflows into Indian gold ETFs and digital gold were estimated at INR 12.1bn, about US$127mn, over the first ten days of July, and retailers have been supporting sales with discounts, exchange offers and flexible payment terms. India accounts for 22% of global jewellery demand, second only to China. When the world's biggest jewellery markets buy weakness, it tends to steady the floor.
Sources: World Gold Council, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Kitco, exchange-rates.org, IndexBox, Visual Capitalist. Compiled Saturday 1 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.