The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold rose on a hot inflation print, which is not what the textbook says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index on Friday morning, and core CPI came in at 0.3% for the month, a tenth of a point above the roughly 0.2% consensus. Traders responded by lifting the odds of a quarter point rise at next week's Federal Reserve meeting to around 90%. Gold went up anyway, trading near $4,389 an ounce and finishing about 1.7% higher on the day (CNBC, GoldSilver).
The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is the whole week
The Federal Open Market Committee sits on 15 and 16 September, and for once the argument is about a rise rather than a cut. Market implied odds have swung hard through the month, moving from roughly 35% to about 70% on comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, then to around 90% after Friday's inflation figures (IG, GoldSilver). Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, which is why the reaction to the decision usually matters more than the decision.
The price opened Friday at its lowest in over a month
December gold futures opened at $4,359.40 an ounce on Friday, down 1.1% on the Thursday close and the weakest opening level in more than a month, before the day turned (Yahoo Finance). Live spot was quoted at $4,362.28 an ounce in the early hours of Saturday, which is about $140.25 a gram (JM Bullion).
Central banks bought a record second quarter
The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report put net central bank purchases at 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, up 62% on the same quarter last year and the strongest second quarter in its data series. Poland leads the year to date on 64 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan on 33 tonnes and China on 25 tonnes, with Russia and Turkey the largest sellers. The Council's survey found 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months (World Gold Council).
India is buying into the festival season, and much of it is old gold
Indian import values more than doubled in July, to $4.16bn from $1.97bn in June, with estimated volumes rising to 40 to 45 tonnes from around 20 tonnes as the trade stocked up ahead of the festivals (World Gold Council). The detail worth noting is what is funding it: trade press reports that exchanging old jewellery for new could account for 60 to 70% of a jeweller's festive business, so a large part of the demand is being met by metal already inside the country rather than by fresh imports.
Hormuz is still open as a question, but the dollar has been winning the safe haven trade
The Strait of Hormuz has been substantially closed to shipping since late February, and the market's response has been a useful correction to the idea that trouble automatically lifts gold. When the strikes began, money went to the dollar first: gold fell more than 4% and silver as much as 8% on 3 March (GoldSilver). Geopolitics sets the backdrop, but interest rate expectations have been setting the price.
Sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, GoldSilver, IG, JM Bullion, the World Gold Council and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compiled Saturday 12 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.