The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold ends the week near $4,350 after a run at a ten week high
Gold was quoted at $4,349.34 an ounce at the close on 14 August, with the global spot market shut over the weekend. Earlier in the week the metal traded around $4,400, close to a ten week high, before profit taking took the edge off the rally. In Indian terms the move is easier to feel: a sovereign has gone from Rs 74,240 on 15 August 2025 to Rs 1,13,760 a year later, a rise of roughly 53 per cent. (Sources: LiteFinance price data, CNBC, Sunday Guardian)
Softer inflation data trims the odds of a September rate rise
US consumer and producer price figures came in contained, and markets now put roughly a one in three chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates in September. All 104 economists in a Reuters survey expect the Fed to hold. Gold tends to firm when the cost of holding a non yielding asset is expected to stay put, and that expectation is what carried it towards the ten week high. (Sources: CNBC, Reuters)
The Strait of Hormuz deadlock keeps a risk premium in the price
Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, and investors are wary of an escalation that would push energy prices up and revive the inflation problem the Fed has been trying to close out. That tension is doing two jobs at once: it supports gold as insurance, while raising the risk of the very inflation that would argue for higher rates. (Source: CNBC)
China extends its gold buying streak to 21 months
The People's Bank of China added about 20 tonnes, or 640,000 ounces, to its reserves in July, the twenty first consecutive month of accumulation, according to data released in early August. Goldman Sachs expects central banks as a group to average around 60 tonnes a month through 2026, driven by reserve diversification rather than by price. (Sources: Bloomberg, Kitco)
Central banks set a record for a second quarter
Central bank net demand reached 289 tonnes in the second quarter, a record for that quarter and a fivefold increase on a revised first quarter figure. The National Bank of Poland led with 51 tonnes, taking its holding to 632 tonnes against a stated target of 700, while the People's Bank of China added 33 tonnes, its largest quarterly increase since the end of 2023. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan and the Czech Republic were also among the buyers. (Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026)
Jewellery buyers trade down while bars and coins hold up
Global jewellery demand fell to 278 tonnes in the second quarter as high prices pushed buyers towards lighter pieces. India, still the largest jewellery market, saw jewellery volumes drop 15 per cent to 75.1 tonnes and total demand fall 6 per cent to 131.4 tonnes, yet the value of that gold hit a record Rs 1.98 lakh crore. Bar and coin demand there rose 9 per cent to 50.3 tonnes. The pattern is the one the trade knows well: when the metal is dear, weight falls and value rises. (Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends India Focus Q2 2026)
Mine output edges up, scrap falls, and the London market gets busier
Mine production rose 2 per cent year on year in the second quarter, while recycling fell 6 per cent, which is unusual at these prices and suggests holders are not yet tempted to sell. Over the counter and stock flows through the London market reached 327 tonnes in the quarter, up 91 per cent year on year, for a first half total of 571 tonnes. The LBMA afternoon gold price averaged $4,506.29 an ounce over the quarter, 8 per cent below the first quarter record but 37 per cent above the same period in 2025. (Sources: World Gold Council, LBMA)
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Kitco, the World Gold Council, the LBMA, LiteFinance and the Sunday Guardian. Compiled 15 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.