The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds above $4,000 into a decisive week
Gold closed Friday at $4,058.90 per ounce, up $11.73 on the day, and sits below $4,100 as markets wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Tuesday 29 July. Markets put the probability of rates staying at 3.50% to 3.75% at around 86% (CME Group, via Yahoo Finance). A busy data week follows: US second quarter GDP, jobless claims and July purchasing manager surveys.
China buys gold for a twentieth straight month
The People's Bank of China added 480,000 troy ounces (about 15 tonnes) in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, taking reserves to 75.44 million ounces (Bloomberg, Kitco). Central bank buying overall rose 17% in the first quarter of the year.
Central banks expect reserves to keep rising
The World Gold Council's 2026 survey of 76 central banks found a record 89% expect global gold reserves to increase over the next year, and 45% plan to add to their own. The buying is led by emerging economies diversifying away from the dollar.
Oil and the Middle East complicate the picture
Crude oil reached a six-week high after fresh US strikes on Iranian-linked targets and Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. Dearer oil revives inflation worries, which cuts both ways for gold: it supports the case for holding hard assets while giving the Fed a reason to keep rates higher for longer.
India's demand cools, for now
Physical buying across jewellery, bars and coins softened in India through May under higher duties and record local prices (World Gold Council). India remains the world's great cultural gold market; when prices settle, demand historically returns.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Kitco News, World Gold Council, CNBC. Compiled 26 July 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.