The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds its ground near 4,280 dollars as the dollar firms
Gold slipped back under 4,300 dollars an ounce and traded around 4,275 to 4,281 dollars through Asian hours on Friday, with a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields doing the work (FX Leaders, Yahoo Finance). Our own markets feed, read at 07:06 UTC this morning, puts spot at 4,286.20 dollars an ounce, which is 104.03 pounds a gram of fine gold, or 3,235.84 pounds an ounce. Gold is roughly 14 per cent higher than a year ago and about 6.5 per cent below where it stood a month ago (Trading Economics).
An October rate rise is now the market's base case
Traders are pricing close to a 70 per cent chance of a rate rise in October and a 95 per cent chance of a further one in December, with FOMC members continuing to argue for tighter policy (FX Leaders, NordFX). That is the single heaviest weight on the gold price at the moment. Higher rates raise the cost of holding an asset that pays no income, which is why a metal with record central bank demand behind it has still given back ground this month.
Treasury yields at levels not seen for two decades
The US ten year yield is quoted near 5.14 to 5.2 per cent, the highest since 2007, and the thirty year near 5.5 per cent, a level last seen in 2004, while the dollar index reached 101.40, its strongest since late July (NordFX, FX Leaders). A bond selloff of that size is the clearest short term headwind gold faces, because it offers savers a paid alternative to the metal.
Hormuz talks take the war premium out of oil
Hopes that the United States and Iran can end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are among the factors weighing on prices this week, with oil falling back as the risk recedes (Yahoo Finance). Our own feed shows Brent down about 2.5 per cent and WTI about 2 per cent on the latest session. Geopolitical fear is a temporary bid under gold: when it lifts, the price is left standing on the slower arguments of currency debasement and reserve demand.
Central banks kept buying through the worst quarter since 2013
Central banks bought gold at the fastest pace in over a year during the sharpest quarterly price fall since 2013, with the second quarter of 2026 reaching a record 289 tonnes, up between 62 and 74 per cent on the year (World Gold Council, Mining.com). Poland leads the 2026 field with 64 tonnes accumulated so far, ahead of Uzbekistan on 33 tonnes, China on 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan on 20 tonnes (Visual Capitalist). Official buyers are not trading the chart; they are building reserves, and they bought the fall rather than sold it.
India's festive season is bringing jewellery buyers back
Demand in India is improving ahead of the festive season, with bullion dealers restocking and jewellery buyers, ETF investors and importers all returning as prices come off their highs (World Gold Council, reported by Outlook Money). Indian demand ran to 281.5 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up only 1.8 per cent on the year as high prices held volumes back, yet India was still the largest jewellery market in the world in the April to June quarter at 27 per cent of global demand. Dhanteras falls on 6 November this year, so the buying window is opening now.
Sources: FX Leaders, Yahoo Finance, NordFX, Trading Economics, World Gold Council, Mining.com, Visual Capitalist, Outlook Money, and the Chapman Gold markets feed. Compiled Saturday 26 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.