The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Weak US jobs report lifts gold off the week's lows
The September US payrolls report showed 29,000 jobs added against expectations of around 90,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. The miss cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise this month to well under 15%, and physical gold rebounded through the $4,190 an ounce mark as buyers returned. Silver firmed alongside it. (USAGOLD Daily Market Report; Kitco)
Before the data, gold was heading for a second weekly loss
Ahead of the payrolls release on Friday, spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,154.78 an ounce and US gold futures were down 0.4% at $4,184.00. At that point the metal was down more than 3% on the week and on course for a second straight weekly decline, pressured by a firmer dollar. Economists had been expecting 90,000 new jobs after a gain of 162,000 in August. (Reuters, via CNBC)
Treasury yields at their highest since 2002
Yields on 10 and 30 year US Treasuries reached their highest levels since 2002 on Thursday, and the dollar was heading for a weekly gain. The 10 year yield printed near 5.3% during the week. Higher yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, and a stronger dollar makes gold dearer for buyers in other currencies. (Reuters, via CNBC; USAGOLD)
HSBC trims its gold forecasts but sees a floor forming
HSBC cut its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,490 an ounce from $4,560, and for 2027 to $4,825 from $4,925. The bank said gold is likely to face further short term pressure but may be nearing a bottom, and that it expects central banks to resume buying if the price approaches or falls below $4,000. (Newsquawk; Reuters)
China's central bank steps up buying as Golden Week begins
The People's Bank of China added 20.2 tonnes of gold to its reserves in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, with Poland the next largest reported buyer at 8 tonnes. China's Golden Week holiday, from 1 to 7 October, traditionally opens the country's peak gold buying season, though the World Gold Council notes that high prices and low consumer confidence have dented Chinese jewellery demand this year. Global gold ETFs also recorded their first weekly outflow since mid July in late September. (Kitco; World Gold Council Weekly Markets Monitor)
India and Dubai: retail prices hold steady
In India, 24 carat gold was trading around the INR 1.50 lakh mark per 10 grams on Saturday, at about INR 1,50,628 in Delhi and INR 1,50,427 in Mumbai. In Dubai, 24K gold was unchanged in morning rates at AED 497.75 per gram, with 22K at AED 460.75. (LatestLY)
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Kitco, USAGOLD, Newsquawk, World Gold Council, LatestLY. Compiled Saturday 3 October 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.