The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
A hot jobs number knocks gold back more than 2 per cent
American employers added 162,000 jobs in August against a forecast of roughly 54,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 per cent and the June and July figures revised up by more than 50,000 between them. Spot gold fell about 2.2 per cent to around $4,376 an ounce on the release, having opened Friday at its highest level of the week. (Reuters via CNBC; BullionVault)
Rate cut talk turns into rate rise talk
Interest rate futures moved to price roughly a three in five chance of the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate at the meeting on 15 and 16 September, up from a coin toss the day before. The Fed Funds rate stands at 3.63 per cent and the market consensus for the end of 2026 has been pushed back towards 4.00 per cent. (BullionVault)
Waller leaves the door open
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, whose remarks earlier in the week had briefly softened the dollar and lifted bullion, said that if inflation in the August data comes in hot he would consider a rate rise. The ten year Treasury yield spiked to 4.818 per cent on 2 September, its highest since November 2023, eased on his comments, then climbed back towards 4.80 per cent after the payrolls print. (BullionVault; CNBC)
The steepest weekly fall since mid June
Taken as a week, gold ended about 3.0 per cent lower, its worst five days since the middle of June, having started the week at a two week low on rising yields and recovered mid week to around $4,477. That still follows a month of August in which gold gained more than 10 per cent. (BullionVault; Kitco)
Silver gives back half its rebound
Silver briefly dipped through $65 a troy ounce on Friday, reversing about half of the 6.6 per cent rebound it had made from Wednesday's low, after trading near $66 earlier in the week. Silver has been the louder of the two metals for a year now, and it moves further in both directions. (BullionVault; Kitco)
China's buying streak reaches 21 months, with the August figure due
The People's Bank of China added close to 20 tonnes of gold in July, its largest single month since November 2023, taking reserves to 76.08 million ounces and the run of consecutive monthly purchases to 21. Gold is still under a tenth of China's total foreign exchange reserves, which is the argument for the streak continuing. The August figure is normally published in the first week of the month. (Caixin Global; Bloomberg; World Gold Council)
India buys the season, but with old gold rather than new
The World Gold Council reports jewellery buying returning ahead of the festival season, yet Indian gold imports for September are expected to come in around 15 per cent below August's roughly 45 tonnes. The reason is the one that matters most to our trade: shoppers are increasingly trading in old pieces rather than paying cash for new, with trade estimates putting old gold exchange at 45 to 50 per cent of jewellers' business now and heading for 60 to 70 per cent over the festive weeks. (World Gold Council; JewelBuzz)
Sources: Reuters via CNBC, BullionVault, Kitco, Caixin Global, Bloomberg, the World Gold Council and JewelBuzz. Compiled Saturday 5 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.