The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds near $4,280 as the dollar firms
Spot gold is sitting at about $4,286 an ounce this morning, which is roughly £104 a gram of fine metal, or £3,234 an ounce. The weekend is not a trading session, so the screen still shows where Friday left it: close to the lowest level since early August, after the dollar climbed to a two month high on data showing US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years. On both LiteFinance's and Discovery Alert's readings of the same series, the metal remains about 23 per cent below the record it set in January. (Kitco, Trading Economics, Discovery Alert)
The Federal Reserve raises rates for the first time since 2023
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12 to 0 on 16 September to lift its benchmark a quarter point to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 per cent, its first increase since 2023. "Inflation remains elevated," the committee said in its statement, with core PCE running near 3.4 per cent and an energy shock adding to near term price pressure. Updated projections point to the possibility of one more rise before the year is out. This is the whole of gold's difficulty at present: a metal that pays no income has to compete with bonds that do. (CNBC, Charles Schwab, Discovery Alert)
Investors bought the fall: ETF holdings hit a record in August
Against that backdrop the World Gold Council reports that global gold ETFs took in US$18bn in August and added 121 tonnes, carrying total holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes and assets to US$615bn. It was the second largest monthly inflow by value on record, and Europe's US$7.9bn was the largest single month that region has ever seen, with North America close behind at US$7.7bn. Year to date the funds have gained 160 tonnes and US$29bn. Daily trading volumes rose 21 per cent on the month to an average US$430bn. (World Gold Council, "Global demand drives record holdings", 9 September 2026)
Central banks are still the patient buyers
The World Gold Council's 2026 reserves survey, taken between February and May with a record 76 central banks responding, found 89 per cent expecting global official gold reserves to rise over the coming year and a record 45 per cent intending to add themselves. The reasons given were gold's performance in a crisis (90 per cent), its long term store of value (84 per cent) and diversification (82 per cent), while 74 per cent expect the dollar to hold a smaller share of world reserves in five years. Official buying has averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years, against about 500 tonnes a year in the decade before. (World Gold Council, Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026)
India's festive season starts cautiously
Domestic prices in India reached INR158,854 per 10g by the end of August, a 12 per cent rise in a single month, before easing 4.6 per cent by 11 September. August imports fell to US$2.3bn, down 45 per cent on the month and 58 per cent on the year, an estimated 15 to 20 tonnes, and gold's share of India's total merchandise imports dropped to 3 per cent from 9 per cent. Wedding buying is holding up better than discretionary jewellery. Tellingly, Indian gold ETFs took in INR25.97bn while new investor accounts slowed to 4,000 in the month against a monthly average of 330,000 earlier in the year. (World Gold Council, "India gold market update: cautious festive optimism", 17 September 2026)
Supply: more from the mines, less from the drawer
Total gold supply was steady at 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter, with mine production up 2 per cent on the year offsetting a 6 per cent fall in recycling as softer prices in the quarter discouraged sellers of old jewellery. Mine output is expected to grow modestly again across 2026 as high prices make marginal ounces worth digging, while recycling stays constrained by thin near market stocks. For anyone who buys second hand gold, that second number is the one that matters: when the drawer stays shut, good pieces are harder to find. (World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026)
Sources: Kitco, Trading Economics, CNBC, Charles Schwab, the World Gold Council, Discovery Alert and LiteFinance. Compiled Sunday 27 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.