The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold gives back its payrolls bounce and ends the week about 3.4% lower
Gold reversed its early gains on Friday and finished the week in the red. Spot gold was down 0.9% at $4,140.06 an ounce late in the New York session, about 3.4% lower on the week, while US gold futures settled 1% lower at $4,162.30. The metal had risen more than 1% earlier in the day after US payrolls showed only 29,000 jobs added in September, against a forecast of 90,000, before a firm dollar and elevated Treasury yields pulled it back. Silver, platinum and palladium also closed the week lower. (Reuters, via Kitco)
Rate hike odds for October fall to about 22%
Traders now see roughly a 22% chance of a US rate rise this month, down from around 70% earlier in the week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Softer inflation data and public opposition from senior Federal Reserve officials to another increase in October have shifted expectations towards a hold. Analysts quoted by Reuters cautioned that the Fed keeps a hawkish bias, and that gold's path depends on how much labour market weakness policymakers will tolerate while inflation remains their focus. (Reuters, via Kitco)
Kitco survey: Wall Street close to a bearish majority
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey found sentiment turning. Of 13 analysts, three (23%) expect gold to rise in the coming week, six (46%) expect it to fall and four (31%) see it moving sideways. In the online poll of 182 retail investors, 47% looked for higher prices, the first time since July that Main Street has not had a bullish majority. Kitco put the week's range at a high of $4,280.56 on Monday and a low of $4,110.95 on Thursday. (Kitco News)
Bond market stress in Europe lifts gold in euros and sterling
While the dollar price fell, gold priced in euros, sterling and yen rose about 1% on Thursday, which FXStreet read as money moving out of those currencies and into the metal during a global bond sell-off. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since April 2002, above 5.3%, and Deutsche Bank analysts noted mounting signs of financial stress focused on Europe, with the euro having its worst day against the dollar since June. For a British buyer the sterling price, not the dollar headline, is the one that matters. (FXStreet)
The week ahead: services data and the Fed minutes
The coming week is light on US data. The main events are the ISM Services PMI for September and, on Wednesday, the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting, at which policymakers voted unanimously to raise rates. FXStreet notes technical support near $4,100 and a cluster of resistance between $4,280 and $4,330. It also points out that US crude oil has fallen more than 3% for three weeks running as supply through the Strait of Hormuz improves, which could ease the inflation worries that have weighed on gold. (FXStreet, Kitco News)
Central banks: China and Poland still lead the buying
The official sector remains a steady buyer beneath the price swings. China's central bank added 20.2 tonnes in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 22nd consecutive month of buying, taking holdings to roughly 2,387 tonnes. The World Gold Council's most recent update reported net central bank buying of 23 tonnes in July, with Poland the largest buyer of the year so far at 90 tonnes, and reported purchases of around 130 tonnes year to date against about 160 tonnes over the same period last year. (Kitco News, World Gold Council)
Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, FXStreet, World Gold Council. Compiled Sunday 4 October 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.