The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold back above 4,400 dollars an ounce
Gold traded at 4,426.86 US dollars a troy ounce on Wednesday's close into Thursday, up about 0.65 per cent on the previous session, having climbed back through the psychologically important 4,400 dollar level (Trading Economics). The metal is up roughly 1.3 per cent over the past month and close to 22 per cent higher than a year ago. For anyone selling scrap or buying at auction, that year on year figure is the number that matters: the melt floor under every piece of plain gold has moved a long way in twelve months.
A softer dollar does the heavy lifting
The dollar slipped to a four month low, which is the clearest single support under the gold price this week, even with Treasury yields still elevated (Reuters, Investing.com). Gold pays no interest, so it tends to look better whenever the currency it is priced in looks worse. Sterling buyers should note the mirror image of that: a weaker dollar softens the sterling gold price relative to the dollar headline, so the two do not always move together.
Inflation data is the event risk
Attention turns to US producer prices and the consumer price index, the two releases most likely to reset expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, with them, the gold price (Trading Economics, IG). Rate expectations have swung about all quarter: odds on a rise at the September meeting eased to roughly 35 per cent from 40 per cent after a softer producer price reading, while pricing for a cut at the same meeting sits close to zero (Investing.com, CNBC). In short, the market expects the Fed to sit still and is arguing about which way it moves next.
Middle East tensions keep a safe haven bid in place
Escalating Middle East tensions, and the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, are feeding both the inflation story and periodic safe haven buying (Reuters, Trading Economics). Geopolitical bids are usually the least durable part of a gold rally, but they have been unusually persistent this year and have coincided with steady official sector demand rather than fighting it.
Central banks are still buying, if a little more slowly
China added around 20 tonnes and Poland around 8 tonnes in the latest reported month, with central bank purchases running at roughly 130 tonnes year to date against about 160 tonnes over the same period last year (World Gold Council, Mining.com). The World Gold Council still expects official sector buying of roughly 850 tonnes across 2026, close to last year's total, and its own survey of central bankers found 89 per cent expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months. Slower, then, but not a turn.
Record mine supply, and record costs with it
Global mine production rose 2 per cent year on year to 966 tonnes in the second quarter, an all time high for a June quarter, taking first half output to 1,867 tonnes, itself a record and 3 per cent above the first half of 2025 (World Gold Council). The cost side moved further: all in sustaining costs reached 1,785 dollars an ounce in the first quarter, up 16 per cent year on year, partly because a higher gold price feeds straight back into royalty payments. More metal is coming out of the ground, and it is getting dearer to get it out.
India heads into the festive season
Indian demand is showing signs of recovery ahead of the festive run into Dhanteras and Diwali, led by physical investment in bars and coins alongside improving jewellery buying (World Gold Council, The Tribune). October and November carry the heaviest calendar driven demand of the Indian year, so the next six weeks are the seasonal test of whether high prices have genuinely deterred the world's second largest consumer market or merely delayed it.
Sources: Trading Economics, Reuters, Investing.com, IG, CNBC, World Gold Council, Mining.com, The Tribune. Compiled 10 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.