The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
The Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023
The US Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, in a unanimous vote. It was the first increase in roughly three years, and markets had priced it in heavily beforehand, with the CME FedWatch tool showing better than 90% odds of a hike (GoldSilver, Yahoo Finance).
Gold gives back its gains as Warsh stays hawkish
Gold and silver rose into the announcement but surrendered those gains within half an hour. Bullion fell as much as 1.3% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his press conference to stress the continuing threat from inflation, and the Fed's projections pointed to a further increase before the end of 2026 (Bloomberg, FX Leaders).
A six-week low and a firmer dollar set the scene
Going into the meeting, physical gold had slipped to a six-week low near $4,263 an ounce as the US Dollar Index climbed to 99.57, its highest since 3 September, and Treasury yields firmed. A stronger dollar and higher real yields are the classic headwinds for a metal that pays no interest (USAGOLD).
Oil shock complicates the inflation picture
West Texas Intermediate crude has risen about 15% this month to near $99 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut a major East to West pipeline. Higher energy prices feed the inflation worries that pushed the Fed to act, which cuts both ways for gold: supportive as a hedge, unhelpful when it means tighter policy (USAGOLD).
China's central bank buys the most gold since 2023
The People's Bank of China added 650,000 ounces to its reserves in August, its largest monthly purchase since 2023, extending its buying run to 22 months even as prices rose. Elsewhere, Poland remains the year's largest official buyer, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also adding steadily (Bloomberg, World Gold Council).
India keeps buying despite duties and a public appeal
India's gold imports rose 32% in its 2026 fiscal year even after the government lifted import duties to 15% in May, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly urged households on 1 September to pause non-essential gold purchases. Investment demand through ETFs, bars and coins has been strong while jewellery tonnage has fallen at high prices (World Gold Council, Discovery Alert).
Sources: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, USAGOLD, GoldSilver, FX Leaders, World Gold Council, Discovery Alert. Compiled Thursday 17 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.