The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold slides as the dollar rallies and yields hold near 5 per cent
Spot gold traded near $4,308.40 an ounce in early US dealing on Wednesday, down 1.12 per cent on the session, with silver off 2.88 per cent at $65.00 (Kitco News). The dollar index stood at 100.79, its strongest in roughly two months, and the ten year Treasury yield held around the 5.0 per cent area. Oil eased at the same time, with WTI at $89.01 and Brent at $98.16 after Saudi Arabia restarted its East to West pipeline, so the usual inflation prop under bullion was absent.
Stronger US business activity knocks gold to $4,280
Spot gold dropped to $4,280 an ounce after the flash S&P composite purchasing managers' index for September improved to 58.4 from 56.0 (Kitco News). Firmer activity data pushes real yields up, and gold pays no interest, so it tends to give ground on days like this. Support at $4,300 is now the level traders are watching.
Goldman Sachs holds a $4,900 year end target on sovereign buying
Goldman Sachs Research expects gold at $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, on central bank demand and a softening rate outlook. Its model puts July central bank purchases at 44 tonnes, well over twice the pre 2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes, with buying running near 91 tonnes a month on a three month seasonally adjusted basis. It also estimates the People's Bank of China bought about 35 tonnes in July, roughly 75 per cent more than officially disclosed (Goldman Sachs Research, reported by Kitco News).
The banks are split on what comes next
TD Securities argues the bull run is intact and sees the next leg carrying gold above $5,000 an ounce, while BMO reads the battle around $4,300 support as a pause, with underlying demand metrics strengthening beneath the price (Kitco News). Two houses, the same chart, opposite emphasis: worth remembering when any single forecast is quoted at you as fact.
Mine output sets a record while scrap keeps shrinking
Second quarter mine production reached 965.6 tonnes, up 2 per cent year on year and a record for a second quarter, but recycled gold fell 6 per cent to 326.1 tonnes, leaving total supply flat at 1,268.9 tonnes (World Gold Council). That second number is the one a jeweller should notice. Even at these prices, less old gold is coming back to the refiners, which is why good second hand pieces are getting harder to replace on the shelf.
What to watch today
Initial jobless claims and the Federal Reserve balance sheet are due today, with the University of Michigan's September inflation expectations reading to follow tomorrow (Charles Schwab). Expectations data matters more than usual just now, because the argument over whether the Fed is easing or tightening from here is the argument setting the gold price.
Sources: Kitco News, Goldman Sachs Research, TD Securities, BMO, S&P Global, World Gold Council, Charles Schwab. Compiled 24 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.