The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold climbs back above $4,400 as the dollar and yields ease
Gold traded around $4,422 an ounce on Thursday morning, up roughly 0.78 per cent on the day, extending the previous session's rebound. The move was attributed to a pullback in the US dollar and in Treasury yields rather than to any fresh buying story. Weaker employment data and signs of moderating inflation were also cited as support. (Trading Economics)
Tuesday's slide was the sharpest fall in weeks
Gold settled at $4,325 an ounce on Tuesday 1 September, down 2.86 per cent, with silver down 3.73 per cent at $64.13. A firmer dollar and a global bond slide pushed the ten year US Treasury yield to about 4.79 per cent, raising the opportunity cost of holding metal that pays no interest. Silver, as usual, fell further than gold: it is the more rate sensitive of the two. (Rio Times, USAGOLD)
The September question is a rate rise, not a rate cut
Markets are pricing roughly a two thirds chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points at its meeting later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is a reversal of the position held for most of the past year, and it followed comments from Fed chair Kevin Warsh. For gold the mechanism is simple: higher expected rates lift the return on cash and bonds, and gold pays nothing. (Yahoo Finance, CME Group)
Oil is the pressure behind the pressure
Brent crude rose about 5 per cent to near $95 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest since late July, after US military strikes against Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz followed attacks on two oil tankers. Dearer oil feeds inflation expectations, which in turn feeds the case for tighter policy. The unusual result this year is that a Middle East supply shock has weighed on gold rather than lifted it. (Al Jazeera, Trading Economics)
Central banks are still buying, whatever the price does
The National Bank of Poland bought 51 tonnes in the second quarter, taking its holdings to 632 tonnes against a stated 700 tonne target, while the People's Bank of China added 33 tonnes. The World Gold Council's 2026 reserves survey, covering 76 central banks, found 89 per cent expect global official gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, and a record 45 per cent expect their own holdings to rise. Official buying has averaged about 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years, against roughly 500 tonnes in the preceding decade. (World Gold Council)
India goes into the festive season with a price problem and a spending record
Indian gold demand fell 6 per cent year on year in the second quarter to 131 tonnes, yet spending hit a second quarter record of INR 1,979 billion, about US$21 billion, up 50 per cent. Imports in the September to October run up to the festivals have averaged around 115 tonnes a month in recent years. The tension is the one every jeweller knows: buyers are spending more money on less metal. (World Gold Council)
Sources: Trading Economics, Rio Times, USAGOLD, Yahoo Finance, CME Group, Al Jazeera, World Gold Council. Compiled Thursday 3 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.