The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold rallies above $4,430 as weak payrolls and Hormuz risk bite
Gold pushed above $4,430 an ounce, supported by soft US payrolls data, renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz and steady central bank buying. Rising Treasury yields are named as the main near-term headwind. Silver moved the other way, easing 1.73 per cent. (Markets.com)
The week opened at the highest level since early June
Gold futures opened Monday at $4,400 a troy ounce, flat on Friday's close but the strongest opening since early June, before easing to $4,391.50 in early US trade. That leaves the metal up 7.8 per cent on the week, 6.7 per cent on the month and 28 per cent on the year. A disappointing jobs report on Friday led analysts to pare back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. (Yahoo Finance)
July CPI is today's test
US consumer price data for July is released on 12 August and is the next hurdle for the current move. The question is whether the jobs-driven repricing of Fed expectations holds once inflation is on the table, with the next FOMC meeting set for 16 September. Two inflation reports this week are expected to show price pressure still building. (Yahoo Finance, Markets.com)
China's central bank extends its buying run to 21 months
The People's Bank of China added roughly 20 tonnes of gold to its reserves in July, the twenty-first consecutive month of accumulation. Official sector buying has run ahead of forecasts this year, with Goldman Sachs now expecting central banks to average around 60 tonnes a month through 2026. Poland remains the largest single buyer of 2026, adding more than 20 tonnes as part of a plan to reach 700 tonnes. (Bloomberg, Kitco News)
Supply is steady, and that is the point
Total gold supply held at 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter, with a 2 per cent rise in mine production offsetting a 6 per cent fall in recycling. Mine output hit an all-time quarterly high of 885 tonnes in the first quarter, yet the World Gold Council still sees only modest growth potential from mining and scrap combined. The LBMA PM price averaged $4,506.29 an ounce over the second quarter. (World Gold Council)
The banks trim their targets, and Indian retail keeps buying
Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end 2026 gold target to $4,900 from $5,400, and JPMorgan has reset its third and fourth quarter targets to $4,300 and $4,500, replacing the $6,000 path issued in June. In India, physical demand is unmoved: 24 carat gold is quoted at roughly ₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams, 22 carat at about ₹1.42 lakh and 18 carat near ₹1.16 lakh across most major cities. (Golden Ark Reserve compiling bank notes, Sakshi Post)
Sources: Markets.com, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Kitco News, World Gold Council, Golden Ark Reserve, Sakshi Post. Compiled Tuesday 11 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.