The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold touches a five week low as the Fed meeting opens
Gold slipped to around $4,295 an ounce in early Asian trade on Tuesday after falling more than 1% on Monday, its lowest level in five weeks (FXStreet). The metal had settled at $4,348.39 on Friday, a daily gain that still left it 1.8% lower on the week and extended a run of three weekly declines (Rio Times).
Markets price a near certain US rate rise on Wednesday
The Federal Reserve's two day meeting begins today, with the decision due on Wednesday 16 September. Futures now imply roughly a 92% chance of a quarter point rise, and Goldman Sachs has dropped its call for no change and now expects an increase (Investing.com). A higher rate raises the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which is why gold has been sold into the meeting.
Oil spike feeds the inflation scare
Crude jumped more than 2% on Monday after fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and on shipping in the Gulf added to supply worries, and a Saudi pipeline shutdown pushed oil towards four month highs (Asharq Al-Awsat; USAGOLD). Traders read dearer energy as a further push on US inflation, which held at 3.4% in August with the monthly figure the strongest in three months (Rio Times).
US 10 year yield breaks 5% as the dollar firms
The benchmark US 10 year Treasury yield rose above 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023 (Investing.com), while the US Dollar Index traded around 99.57, its highest since 3 September (FXStreet). Higher yields and a firmer dollar together are the main weight on gold this week. Silver fared worse, down 2.1% on Monday to about $63.22 an ounce (USAGOLD).
China's central bank buys the most gold since 2023
The People's Bank of China added 650,000 ounces to its reserves in August, its largest monthly purchase since 2023, extending its buying streak to 22 months even as prices rose (Bloomberg). Official buying of this kind is the steady demand underneath the market while short term traders react to the Fed.
Investors kept buying gold funds through August
Physically backed gold exchange traded funds took in a net $18 billion in August, the second largest monthly inflow on record, lifting holdings by 121 tonnes to an all time high of 4,189 tonnes (USAGOLD). In India, meanwhile, the import duty rise to 15% in May continues to weigh on volumes: second quarter demand fell 6% by weight to 131 tonnes, even as the value spent reached a second quarter record (World Gold Council).
Sources: FXStreet, Rio Times, Investing.com, Asharq Al-Awsat, USAGOLD, Bloomberg, World Gold Council. Compiled Tuesday 15 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.