The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds above $4,400 as the rate outlook softens
Gold traded at around $4,429 an ounce on Tuesday, up roughly 0.3 per cent on the day and advancing for a third straight session. The metal is up about 10.5 per cent over the past month and around 33.5 per cent on the year, though it remains below the intraday record of $5,589.38 set on 28 January. (Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Investing News)
Traders pare bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise
A run of weaker United States data, including a softer than expected payrolls report and subdued consumer inflation, has pushed markets away from pricing a rate increase. Traders now put the probability of a September rise at about 33 per cent, down from 51.2 per cent a month earlier, and no longer fully price an increase by year end. A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for buyers outside the United States, which is the mechanical part of this week's move. (CNBC, Bloomberg)
China extends its buying streak to twenty one months
The People's Bank of China added about 20 tonnes to its reserves in July, its twenty first consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single month increase since October 2023. Over the second quarter, Poland's central bank was the largest buyer at 51 tonnes, taking its first half total to 82 tonnes. (Bloomberg, World Gold Council)
Exchange traded funds turned buyers again in July
After two months of outflows, every region reported net inflows into gold backed funds in July, totalling 23.5 tonnes worth roughly $3 billion, with Europe leading. Assets under management rose about 1 per cent to $530 billion and total holdings stand at 4,068 tonnes. Year to date the funds have taken in around $11 billion, a 39 tonne increase, with Asian listed funds the largest contributor and North America still in net outflow. (World Gold Council)
Trading volumes eased but stayed above last year's run rate
Global market liquidity averaged $356 billion a day in July, down about 3.5 per cent on the month, with over the counter volumes falling roughly 3.4 per cent to $205 billion a day. Both London and Shanghai activity remained above their 2025 averages. Total COMEX long positions fell about 4.4 per cent to 542 tonnes, while managed money added 11 tonnes. (World Gold Council, State Street Global Advisors)
India stocks up as the festive season approaches
Indian manufacturers report order bookings from retailers building inventory ahead of a festive season that begins in late August. Second quarter demand came in at 131 tonnes, down 6 per cent year on year, yet spending hit a second quarter record of INR 1,979 billion, about $21 billion, a rise of 50 per cent. Volumes down, value up: the same pattern we see across the trade when prices run. (World Gold Council)
Sources: Trading Economics, Bloomberg, CNBC, World Gold Council, State Street Global Advisors, Investing News. Compiled Tuesday 18 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.