The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds near $4,660 with PCE data and Jackson Hole ahead
Spot gold traded at $4,657.10 an ounce on Monday, up 1.19 per cent, with spot silver at $69.16, up 0.43 per cent (Kitco News). A softer dollar, fiscal risk hedging and continuing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf kept buyers active even with the ten year Treasury yield near 4.7 per cent and the thirty year near 5.3 per cent. The week's calendar is heavy: July PCE inflation and the second quarter GDP revision on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
The Treasury buyback that lit the fuse
Last week's move began when the US Treasury said it would double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer dated bonds, an announcement one analyst quoted by Kitco called "totally unexpected". Gold surged 3.5 per cent to $4,486.88 on the day, silver rose 3.69 per cent, long dated yields fell back from close to their highest levels in nineteen years and the dollar index dropped 0.8 per cent. It is a useful reminder that the gold price is often set by the bond market rather than by anything happening in the metal itself.
China extends its buying streak to twenty one months
The People's Bank of China added roughly 20 tonnes, or 640,000 ounces, to its gold reserves in July, the twenty first consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single monthly increase since October 2023 (Bloomberg). Official sector buying of this kind is price insensitive by design: it continues whether the metal is cheap or dear, which puts a slow and steady bid under the market that private investors do not have to compete for on any given day.
Central banks bought five times more gold in the second quarter
Central bank purchases in the second quarter of 2026 ran at roughly five times the first quarter pace, and a record 45 per cent of central banks now say they expect to increase their gold reserves over the next twelve months (World Gold Council). Poland leads the year to date table on about 64 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan on 33 tonnes and China on 25 tonnes. The Czech National Bank, a smaller but consistent buyer, added around 6 tonnes in the quarter and is working towards 100 tonnes by 2028.
India restocks ahead of the festive season
Indian gold imports roughly doubled in July, rising from about 20 tonnes to an estimated 40 to 45 tonnes as jewellers replenished inventory before the festive season (World Gold Council). Jewellery demand has strengthened, with buyers treating the summer price dip as an opportunity and footfall recovering beyond wedding purchases. Indian gold ETFs took net inflows of about 1,560 crore rupees in July, so investment and adornment demand are pulling in the same direction for once.
Oil and the Gulf keep a floor under the safe haven bid
WTI crude stood at $85.18 a barrel and Brent at $91.06 on Monday, with US and Iranian talks reported as stalled and an Iranian security official warning that support for new sanctions would be treated as an act of war (Kitco News). Higher energy prices complicate the inflation picture the Fed is trying to read, and unresolved risk around the Strait of Hormuz is the sort of background that keeps a portion of the market holding metal regardless of the rate outlook.
Sources: Kitco News, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Yahoo Finance. Compiled 25 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.