The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold steadies on Tuesday after Monday's sharp break
Spot gold was quoted at USD 4,143.26 an ounce, up USD 7.50 or 0.18 per cent, with COMEX gold at USD 4,142.30, up 0.14 per cent (India TV News). That follows Monday's drop, when prices opened at their lowest level since 5 August. A steadying after a heavy session is not a recovery: it is the market waiting for the next piece of information.
The market is pricing hikes, not cuts
The FOMC raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.0 per cent at its meeting concluding on 16 September, citing inflation and geopolitical developments (Federal Reserve). CME Group data put the probability of a further increase in October above 70 per cent (Yahoo Finance), and futures markets were pricing the rate at roughly 4.2 per cent by December (Morningstar). Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, which is the simplest explanation for the pressure of the last fortnight.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz are doing the work
The renewed slide was attributed to tensions between the United States and Iran pushing oil prices higher, after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides expected to return to negotiations this week (Yahoo Finance). It is an unusual configuration: the geopolitics that would normally lift gold are lifting oil instead, and the inflation that follows is what keeps the Fed tightening.
A heavy week of United States data
Prices are expected to stay volatile through the release of the September CB Consumer Confidence Index, August JOLTS job openings, the September ADP employment change and United States second quarter GDP (India TV News). Each is a reading on whether the labour market is loosening. If it holds up, the case for further tightening holds up with it.
India heads into its buying season with prices near records
Indian demand reached 281.50 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up just 1.80 per cent year on year, with high prices limiting volume growth (World Gold Council, via Outlook Money). The festive window runs from Shardiya Navratri on 11 October through Dhanteras on 6 November to Diwali on 8 November, and with 10 grams of 24 carat gold approaching Rs 1.5 lakh, some buyers are switching to silver (Retail Intel). Dealers are stocking up regardless: in India the occasion tends to beat the price.
Miners are earning more than ever, and it costs them more to do it
Mine production hit 885 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, an all time first quarter high in the World Gold Council's series back to 2000, while the average producer margin reached a record USD 3,076 an ounce, up 134 per cent year on year. All in sustaining costs rose 16 per cent to USD 1,785 an ounce, the 28th consecutive year on year increase (World Gold Council, via ANI). Record margins on record costs is the whole story of this cycle: the metal has run further than the mining of it.
Sources: India TV News, Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, the Federal Reserve, the World Gold Council, Outlook Money, ANI and Retail Intel. Compiled Tuesday 29 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.