The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold firms above $4,050 as Iran talk and a softer dollar pull in opposite directions
Spot gold rose about 0.2 per cent to $4,059.81 an ounce in early Tuesday trade, with the futures contract quoted around $4,062.40. Investors were weighing conflicting statements about possible negotiations between the United States and Iran, which trims the risk premium, against a weaker dollar, which does the opposite. The net effect so far is a market holding its ground rather than breaking either way (Reuters via Sakshi Post, Trading Economics).
The dollar slips to a mid-June low after intervention to support the yen
The greenback fell to its weakest level since mid-June after authorities stepped into the currency market to support the yen. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, and it is the single clearest reason the metal is up this morning rather than down (Techno Time, citing global market reports).
All eyes on a run of US employment data
Traders are positioning ahead of a series of American jobs reports that will shape the interest rate path into the autumn. The last such surprise was instructive: a June payrolls print of 57,000 against a forecast of 110,000 sent gold up more than 2 per cent in a session. The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at its 29 July meeting on a divided 9 to 3 vote, so the data, not the committee, is setting the tone (CNBC, BullionVault).
Central banks bought 289 tonnes in the second quarter, the biggest since late 2024
Official sector buying rose to 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, the largest quarterly addition since the fourth quarter of 2024, taking the year to date total to 345 tonnes. Poland leads with 82 tonnes bought and a record 632 tonne holding, ahead of Uzbekistan on 41 tonnes and China on 40 tonnes. Russia and Turkey are the notable net sellers, Russia's disposals reflecting fiscal strain (Visual Capitalist, World Gold Council data).
The tug of war: official buying against exchange traded fund selling
While central banks accumulate, Western investment funds have been going the other way. Higher for longer rates have drained exchange traded fund demand, with United States listed gold funds recording roughly $5.3 billion of monthly redemptions and rolling ninety day flows swinging from close to $30 billion in February into negative territory. Morgan Stanley's view is blunt: without a genuine rebound in fund inflows, the bullish $5,200 target for the second half of the year is out of reach. Flows did narrow back towards zero in late July (Kitco, Morgan Stanley research).
India: a 15 per cent import duty is reshaping the world's second largest market
India's effective gold import duty now stands at 15 per cent, made up of 10 per cent basic customs duty and a 5 per cent agriculture infrastructure and development cess, after a sharp increase from 6 per cent intended to defend a rupee down more than 7 per cent so far this year. The World Gold Council expects jewellery, bar and coin demand to fall by 50 to 60 tonnes, roughly 10 per cent year on year. History suggests a second effect: every duty rise between 2013 and 2026 was followed by more unofficial metal crossing the border (World Gold Council, CNBC).
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Kitco, BullionVault, Trading Economics, Visual Capitalist, World Gold Council, Morgan Stanley research, Techno Time. Compiled Tuesday 4 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.