The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds near a two month high as US inflation data lands today
Spot gold was little changed at $4,386.13 an ounce on Tuesday after touching $4,434.84 earlier in the session, its highest level since 5 June, while US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $4,444.70 (Kitco). The metal has now risen for three straight sessions, having jumped 2.4% on Friday after an unexpected contraction in July non farm payrolls (CNBC). July consumer price figures are published today, with producer prices following on Thursday.
The rate question is the swing factor, and it is a hike, not a cut
Traders were pricing a 48% chance of a September interest rate rise on Tuesday, up from 44% the day before, after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the time was right to begin raising rates gradually (Kitco). Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics warned that a hotter than expected inflation print "could justify the case for an interest rate hike at the Fed's next meeting and put further downward pressure on gold prices". Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank took the other side, describing the macro environment as more supportive and pointing to ongoing structural demand.
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keeps a floor under the price
Iran is reported to be nearing agreement with Oman on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington's further conditions must be met before traffic can resume, and President Trump has demanded compensation related to the conflict (Yahoo Finance). Energy prices have firmed alongside gold rather than against it, which is unusual, and dearer energy feeds straight back into the inflation numbers the Fed is watching.
China extends its buying streak to 21 months
The People's Bank of China added roughly 20 tonnes of gold in July, its 21st consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single month increase since October 2023 (Bloomberg). Central bank buying remains one of the steadiest legs under the price, and it is price insensitive in a way private investment demand never is.
Poland is the year's biggest official buyer
The National Bank of Poland bought 51 tonnes in the second quarter, lifting its holdings to 632 tonnes against a stated target of 700 tonnes, while China added 33 tonnes over the same period to reach 2,346 tonnes (Visual Capitalist). Russia and Turkey are the largest net sellers of 2026, with Russian sales tied to fiscal pressure under sanctions.
Indian jewellery demand softer year on year, but the festive restock has started
India led global jewellery demand in the second quarter at 75 tonnes, recovering from the previous quarter but still down 15% on the same period last year (World Gold Council). Manufacturers have been taking order bookings from retailers since July in preparation for the festive season, which is the single most reliable seasonal pull on physical gold anywhere in the world.
Supply is at a record, and the miners are printing cash
Global mine production reached a record 3,672 tonnes in 2025 and is expected to rise again at a mild pace this year (World Gold Council). Agnico Eagle reported record free cash flow of more than $1.3bn in the second quarter, and Zijin Mining is targeting 105 tonnes of mined gold output in 2026, a 17% increase (MINING.COM, Yahoo Finance). Record supply meeting record official sector buying is the tension that has defined this cycle.
Sources: Kitco, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Visual Capitalist, MINING.COM, Capital Economics and Saxo Bank commentary. Compiled 12 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.