The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold edges lower as markets wait for US inflation
Spot gold slipped 0.18% to $4,163.72 an ounce on Tuesday, with December US gold futures settling 0.04% lower at $4,188.50, as traders held back ahead of the US Consumer Price Index report due on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday (Invezz). Early on Wednesday gold was trading around $4,161 (Mitrade).
Rising short-dated yields keep the pressure on
The US 2-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.81% on Wednesday morning, weighing on gold, which pays no interest and so becomes relatively less attractive as yields rise (Mitrade). Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are also on the week's calendar (Invezz).
The Fed meeting on 27 to 28 October is the next big test
The September CPI figures land ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on 27 to 28 October (Mitrade). After a weak September jobs report showing just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, the CME FedWatch Tool put the chance of an October rate rise at about 21% as of 6 October, while an increase by December was still priced at close to 70% (Kitco, via Reuters).
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz remain the background risk
Through the late summer and September, tension around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, which in turn pushed up yields and the dollar and raised the cost of holding bullion, even as the same tension supported defensive demand (Kitco). That two-sided effect explains why gold has drifted rather than surged on geopolitical news.
Indian prices dip ahead of the festive season
Gold in Chennai fell by Rs 760 per sovereign on Wednesday to Rs 1,08,720, still roughly 15% higher than a year earlier (DT Next). India raised its import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6% in May, and an official said monthly imports fell to around 25 to 30 tonnes from 75 to 100 tonnes before the change (The Hitavada), which makes this year's pre-Diwali buying worth watching.
Central banks still steady buyers
Reporting central banks added a net 290 tonnes in the twelve months to July, close to the 296 tonnes of the year before, led by Poland, China and Kazakhstan (thetrading.tools, from official data). The World Gold Council's own survey found 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months (World Gold Council).
Sources: Invezz, Mitrade, Kitco, Reuters, DT Next, The Hitavada, thetrading.tools, World Gold Council. Compiled Wednesday 14 October 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.