The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold steadies near 4,350 dollars after a sharp session lower
Gold traded around 4,352 dollars an ounce on Wednesday morning, up about 0.4 per cent on the day, having dropped close to 2 per cent in the previous session. The pressure came from rising global bond yields, with the 30 year US Treasury yield touching a 19 year high this week amid fiscal concerns and stubborn inflation. Even after the setback, gold remains up roughly 8 per cent over the past month. (Trading Economics)
Markets have priced out a September rate rise
July CPI and PPI both came in cooler than feared, retail sales softened and consumer sentiment slipped, and together that run of data has pushed traders to price out a Federal Reserve rate increase in September. A year end rise is no longer fully priced either, a shift from a week ago. Lower expected rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding metal, which is part of why gold has recovered ground through August. (USAGOLD, CNBC)
China extends its buying streak to 21 months
The People's Bank of China added about 20 tonnes of gold to its reserves in July, the 21st consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single monthly increase since October 2023. Poland has also kept building, working towards a stated goal of holding around 20 per cent of its currency reserves in gold. Total official reserves held by central banks worldwide now stand at roughly 36,600 tonnes, an all time high. (Bloomberg, World Gold Council)
Exchange traded funds are stirring again
Gold backed ETFs took in about 3 billion dollars during July, with inflows spread across every region and led by European listed funds, lifting global assets under management 1 per cent to some 530 billion dollars. Holdings have since climbed to 97.3 million ounces, the highest since 23 June. Western investment demand has been the missing leg of this rally, so a genuine return of ETF buying would matter. (World Gold Council, Kitco)
Hormuz and the oil price keep a floor under the safe haven bid
Attacks on commercial shipping resumed in July after the spring ceasefire and the June memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, and there is still little sign of an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Around a quarter of the world's seaborne crude and petroleum products passed through that channel in 2025, so the disruption is feeding straight into energy prices and, through them, into the inflation picture gold responds to. (Congressional Research Service, Trading Economics)
India: fewer grams, more money, and the festive season opening
Indian gold demand fell 6 per cent to 131.4 tonnes in the second quarter, yet consumer spending hit a quarterly record of 1.98 lakh crore rupees, about 21 billion dollars, up 50 per cent on the year. Jewellery volumes rose 14 per cent on the quarter to 75 tonnes but were 15 per cent lower than a year earlier, and buyers are shifting towards lighter pieces and lower carat work. Retailers are building stock for a festive season that begins in late August. (World Gold Council)
Sources: Trading Economics, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Kitco, USAGOLD, CNBC and the Congressional Research Service. Compiled 19 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.