The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold starts September at a two-week low
Spot gold traded near $4,370.80 an ounce in early US trading on Tuesday, down about 1.72 per cent on the session, with spot silver at $64.60, down 2.73 per cent (Kitco News). The metal has come back from the three month high it set in late August, and the move has been quick rather than disorderly.
Warsh puts a September rate rise back on the table
Bullion fell more than 3 per cent on Friday 28 August, its biggest one day drop since 10 June, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned the Fed would "have work to do" without clearer evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 per cent target (CNBC). Markets moved from pricing roughly a 36 per cent chance of a September hike to just over 60 per cent, and by Tuesday that had firmed to around 66 to 67.5 per cent on the CME FedWatch tool (Kitco News). Gold pays no interest, so higher-for-longer rates raise the cost of holding it.
A bond selloff and firmer dollar do the pushing
The 10 year US Treasury yield rose to about 4.79 per cent, its highest since January 2025, with the two year near 4.35 per cent, alongside a stronger dollar and rising oil prices (Kitco News). A more expensive dollar makes bullion dearer for buyers holding other currencies, which is usually enough on its own to take the top off a rally.
August was still a strong month
For all the last few sessions, gold gained roughly 10 per cent across August after the US Treasury announced plans to double its liquidity support buybacks of longer dated bonds, reviving what traders call the debasement trade (CNBC, Trading Economics). The correction has taken back part of that, not the whole of it.
Central banks keep buying through the noise
Central banks bought a net 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, up 62 per cent on the same quarter last year, even as the gold price posted its steepest quarterly decline since 2013 (World Gold Council). The Council's ninth annual reserves survey found 89 per cent of central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, with a record 45 per cent expecting their own institution to add. Official sector demand has been the least price sensitive buyer in the market for four years.
India rebuilds stock before the festive quarter
India's gold import value more than doubled in July to $4.16 billion from $1.97 billion in June, with estimated volumes rising to 40 to 45 tonnes from around 20 tonnes (World Gold Council). That restocking runs ahead of the October to December festive and wedding season, the single largest seasonal draw on physical gold anywhere in the world. Mine supply is not short either: the Council put first quarter mine production at 885 tonnes, an all time first quarter high in a series going back to 2000, with recycling up 5 per cent at 366 tonnes.
What it looks like on the bench
Our own live feed read $4,323.30 an ounce at 08:02 this morning, which is about £102.99 a gram of fine gold, or roughly £3,203 a troy ounce. On a 9 carat piece, 375 parts per thousand, that is about £38.62 a gram of metal before anything is made of it. A softer week at the fix does not change what is stamped on the clasp, and second hand gold is bought and sold on weight, carat and mark long after the rate decision is forgotten.
Sources: Kitco News, CNBC, World Gold Council, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch, and the Chapman Gold live markets feed. Compiled Wednesday 2 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.