The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds above $4,350 as a firmer dollar caps the recovery
Gold was quoted at $4,356.80 an ounce, up 0.32 per cent, in Tuesday's afternoon report, recovering ground lost in the previous session. The US Dollar Index sat near 100.48 and the ten year Treasury yield near 5.0 per cent, both of which act as a brake on the metal. Gold futures opened Wednesday at $4,381.00. (Kitco News, Barchart)
The Fed question has flipped from cuts to hikes
The market is now working out whether September's move was a one off adjustment or the start of a renewed tightening phase. Futures pricing put the probability of a 25 basis point increase in October at roughly 53 per cent, close to a coin toss. A rate rising Fed is the single clearest headwind gold faces at these levels. (Kitco News)
Cheaper oil takes some heat out of the inflation trade
Brent crude eased to around $99.25 a barrel, cooling the inflation fears that followed the disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That cut both ways for gold: it softened the safe haven bid, while doing nothing to remove the inflation problem the Fed is still facing. (Kitco News)
China has already imported more gold this year than in all of 2025
Chinese gold imports passed 1,000 tonnes in the eight months to August, exceeding the country's total for the whole of last year and the highest January to August figure in customs records going back to 2017. Only about 80 tonnes of that was the central bank; the rest was household and institutional buying. (Bloomberg, Chinese customs data)
Silver is outrunning gold, and by some distance
Silver December futures opened Tuesday at $66.51 an ounce and were quoted later at $66.97, up 1.63 per cent on the day. Silver is up more than 100 per cent year to date, comfortably ahead of gold's gain, with several analysts pointing to further upside. For anyone holding sterling silver, the scrap floor has moved a long way this year. (Yahoo Finance, Kitco News)
Central banks are still buying, and the buyer list is getting longer
The World Gold Council expects central banks to take roughly 850 tonnes of gold in 2026, broadly in line with last year. Poland leads year to date on 64 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan on 33, China on 25 and Kazakhstan on 20, with newer buyers including Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia. In the Council's survey, 89 per cent of central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months. (World Gold Council, Mining.com)
Sources: Kitco News, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Barchart, the World Gold Council and Mining.com. Compiled Wednesday 23 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.