The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold holds near $4,030 as the market waits on the Fed
Spot gold was last quoted at about $4,029 an ounce, with August COMEX futures off roughly 0.2% at $4,028, as traders declined to take large positions before the Federal Reserve's decision. Forecasters have been framing the day's range as roughly $4,008 to $4,157. The metal has spent the week below $4,100, a level it has not managed to hold since the run into the meeting began. (Yahoo Finance, FX Leaders, LiteFinance)
The Federal Open Market Committee reports this afternoon
The two day meeting concludes on Wednesday, with the policy statement due at 2pm New York time and the Chair's press conference half an hour later. Futures markets have been pricing roughly a 70% chance that rates are left unchanged, with the remainder on a quarter point move higher. For gold the interest is less in the decision itself, which is largely priced, than in the tone of the statement and the split of the vote. (Kitco, GoldSilver)
A firm dollar is capping the upside
The US Dollar Index has been trading near a one month high and stayed broadly stable through Tuesday, which makes bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and has kept a lid on rallies. Gold has eased on the back of it rather than broken down, which suggests the selling is positioning rather than conviction. (Yahoo Finance)
China's central bank posts its largest purchase since 2023
The People's Bank of China made its biggest monthly gold purchase since October 2023 in June, extending a buying streak that now runs to 20 months. The run has continued through a volatile period for the price, which reads as reserve diversification on a long horizon rather than a trade. (Bloomberg)
Official sector buying continues to underpin the price
Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, with May purchases led by Poland at 18 tonnes and China at 10 tonnes. Poland is the largest buyer of the year so far, adding more than 20 tonnes as part of a multi year plan to reach 700 tonnes of reserves. Goldman Sachs has argued that official buying in the region of 60 tonnes a month puts a floor under the market. (World Gold Council, Kitco)
India: lower prices pull in investment, jewellery imports stay soft
Local discounts to the landed price narrowed to around $20 an ounce in the first two weeks of July, well inside the near $150 peak seen in May, before widening again to about $40 by mid month. Investors treated the pullback as an entry point, with net inflows into Indian gold ETFs estimated at INR12.1bn, roughly $127m, over 1 to 10 July. Imports declined further, with the import duty increase from 6% to 15% still working through jewellery and bar demand. (World Gold Council)
Miners report a steady first half
Hochschild Mining produced 151,830 attributable gold equivalent ounces in the first half of 2026 and remains on track for full year guidance of 300,000 to 328,000 ounces. G Mining Ventures reported 36,845 ounces from Tocantinzinho in the second quarter, up 16% on the first, holding its 160,000 to 190,000 ounce guidance. Supply is not the constraint on this market at present. (Hochschild Mining, G Mining Ventures)
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Kitco, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, World Gold Council, GoldSilver, FX Leaders, LiteFinance, Hochschild Mining and G Mining Ventures. Compiled Wednesday 29 July 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.