The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold recovers part of Monday's fall
Gold rose 1.39% on Tuesday to US$4,184.97 an ounce and silver gained 1.18% to US$61.52, with both metals reclaiming less than half of Monday's losses, when gold fell 3.12% and silver 4.60% (The Rio Times). In early Asian trading on Wednesday gold was holding near $4,180, up from Monday's eight week low (FXStreet).
Weak US data cools bets on an October rate rise
US job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, below the 7.23 million forecast, and consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 in September against a forecast of 89.2, the lowest reading since 2014 (The Rio Times). The market implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise in October fell to about 51.5% from 70.9%, and New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" (The Rio Times).
Yields and the dollar still lean against the metal
The rebound was limited by bond yields and a firm dollar: the 10 year US Treasury yield stood at 5.25% and the 30 year at 5.57%, while the US Dollar Index rose to 101.37, described as its highest close in two months (The Rio Times). The backdrop is the Fed's 25 basis point rate rise at its 15 to 16 September meeting, its first in three years, and a 10 year yield that reached 5.27% on Monday, its highest level since 2007 (FXStreet).
Where the price sits, and the data still to come
Monday's slide took gold to around $4,121, its lowest level since 5 August and roughly 27% below the January all time high near $5,600, with $4,000 cited as the support level (FXStreet). This week's remaining US releases are the PCE inflation report on Wednesday, the ISM purchasing managers' index on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday (FXStreet).
Central banks: a record second quarter after a weak first
Central banks added a net 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, a fivefold increase on the first quarter's revised 57 tonnes and a record for a second quarter, although the first half total of 345 tonnes was the lowest for a first half since 2022 (World Gold Council). Poland was the largest buyer in the quarter at 51 tonnes and China added 33 tonnes, while Russia was the largest seller at 22 tonnes (World Gold Council).
Asia: record Chinese imports, Indian buyers waiting
Gold imports into China's onshore market reached a record 1,000 tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, up 78% on the same period of 2025 even though local prices averaged about 45% higher (State Street Investment Management, citing China Customs). In India, dealers were offering discounts of up to $60 an ounce to official domestic prices in the week to 18 September, narrower than the $75 of the week before, as buyers held back in the hope of lower prices (Mining Weekly, via IndexBox).
Sources: The Rio Times, FXStreet, World Gold Council, State Street Investment Management, Mining Weekly via IndexBox. Compiled Wednesday 30 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.