The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold climbs towards $4,200 in a third straight session of gains
Gold moved up to 4,166.40 US dollars a troy ounce, a rise of 88.54 dollars or 2.17 per cent on the day, its third consecutive session higher. The move takes the metal out of the 4,000 to 4,100 dollar band that had contained trading for several weeks. (Trading Economics)
Hormuz talks are now the pivot for the gold price
The rally comes as investors weigh reports of an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying an agreement could be reached within days. A reopening would ease energy-driven inflation pressure and, in turn, lower the odds of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance)
The Fed question has flipped from cuts to hikes
Markets have been pricing a September rate rise rather than a cut, with the implied probability moving between roughly 57 and 67 per cent in recent sessions as traders reacted to each new headline. Elevated energy prices are the reason: they keep inflation live, and a hawkish Fed raises the opportunity cost of holding metal. Attention now turns to US labour market data. (CNBC, Reuters)
A firm dollar is still working against bullion
The US dollar has been steadying near a one-month high, which makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers outside the United States. That has been the quiet drag on the market through late July, and it is the counterweight to the geopolitical bid. (CNBC)
Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes in the second quarter
Official-sector net purchases reached 289 tonnes in Q2, 62 per cent higher than a year earlier and the strongest second quarter in the data series. Poland has led year to date with 64 tonnes, and the People's Bank of China added 10 tonnes in its twentieth consecutive month of net buying. The Council forecasts around 850 tonnes of central bank buying across 2026. (World Gold Council, Mining.com)
Jewellery tonnage is down, jewellery value is up 22 per cent
The World Gold Council's Q2 report, published on 30 July, put total demand flat year on year at 1,269 tonnes, with first-half demand at 2,522 tonnes, up 2 per cent and worth 380 billion US dollars. Jewellery demand fell 17 per cent by weight as buyers moved to lighter pieces, yet the value of global jewellery sales rose 22 per cent in the first half to 86 billion dollars. Mine output edged up about 2 per cent to 966 tonnes, while recycling slipped 6 per cent despite high prices. (World Gold Council, Business Standard, Gulf News)
Sources: Trading Economics, World Gold Council, Reuters, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Business Standard, Gulf News, Mining.com. Compiled Wednesday 5 August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.