The morning briefing from Chapman Gold: what moved the gold market and why it matters. Prices in the banner above are live.
Gold slips below $4,400 as the Middle East pushes oil towards $100
Spot gold fell to $4,367.90 an ounce on Tuesday 8 September, down 0.84 per cent on the day, while the December futures contract opened at $4,451.60 and eased about 0.6 per cent. The named driver was fresh escalation in the Middle East, which lifted crude oil back towards $100 a barrel and raised the inflation question in front of a central bank that has already turned hawkish. Even after the fall, gold is holding a gain of roughly 4.1 per cent on the month. (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics)
The Fed meets on 15 September, and the market is pricing a rise, not a cut
Markets are pricing in around a 60 per cent probability that the US Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points next week, following strong jobs data, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also widely expected to tighten this month. Earlier in September a firmer dollar and a global bond slide had already pushed the 10 year US Treasury yield to about 4.79 per cent. Higher real yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, which is the ordinary mechanism behind this week's softness. (Trading Economics, Rio Times)
China buys 20.2 tonnes in August, its largest month since 2023
The People's Bank of China added 20.2 tonnes, some 650,000 troy ounces, to its reserves in August, according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data published on 7 September. That is the 22nd consecutive month of buying and the largest single month since October 2023. Total holdings now stand at about 76.73 million troy ounces, roughly 2,386 tonnes, with approximately 80 tonnes added in the first eight months of 2026. The buying accelerated even as the price rose, which is the point worth noting. (SAFE via Central Banking, Bloomberg)
The official sector remains the floor under the price
Goldman Sachs Research expects central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes a month across 2026, against an average of 17 tonnes a month before 2022. Poland and China have led recent monthly activity, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also net buyers, while Turkey and Russia have appeared on the selling side. The World Gold Council's own survey work has 89 per cent of central bankers expecting global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. (World Gold Council, Goldman Sachs)
Gold ETFs post a third straight month of inflows, and a record book value
Global physically backed gold ETFs took in $5.5bn in August, a third consecutive monthly inflow, led by North America and Europe while Asia saw outflows. Total assets under management rose 5 per cent to $407bn, another month end record. Holdings themselves rose 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes, still below the record 4,176 tonnes set on 27 February 2026: the value record is being set by the price, not by the tonnage. (World Gold Council)
Mine supply hits a record, and so does the cost of getting it out
Global mine production rose 2 per cent year on year to 966 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, an all time high for a June quarter, taking first half output to a record 1,867 tonnes. Costs are climbing with it: industry all in sustaining costs reached $1,785 an ounce in the first quarter, up 16 per cent year on year, partly because a higher gold price feeds straight back into royalty payments. New supply is not scarce at these prices; cheap new supply is. (World Gold Council, Mining Reporters)
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, Rio Times, Central Banking, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Goldman Sachs, Mining Reporters. Compiled 9 September 2026. Nothing here is investment advice; it is the news, read with a jeweller's eye. For what the market means in real terms, see The Gold Price, where the world is priced in gold.